Live macroeconomic intelligence
Market Overview
Key indicators across all 8 pillars — updated every 5 minutes from FRED
Key Rates Snapshot
Fed Funds Rate
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10Y Treasury
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Daily yield
10Y – 2Y Spread
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Yield curve signal
CPI Index
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Headline inflation
Macro Regime Gauges
Inflation Risk—
Recession Risk—
Credit Stress—
Yield Curve—
Dollar Strength—
Geopolitical RiskHIGH
Driven by live FRED data. Geopolitical gauge reflects current Iran / Middle East conflict status.
API Status
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Connecting…
Commodity Snapshot
Pillar 01
Rates & Fed Policy
US Treasury yield curve · Federal Reserve rate decisions · Mortgage rates
Fed Funds Rate
FRED ↗FEDFUNDS
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2-Yr Treasury
FRED ↗DGS2
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10-Yr Treasury
FRED ↗DGS10
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30-Yr Treasury
FRED ↗DGS30
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30-Yr Mortgage
FRED ↗MORTGAGE30US
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US Treasury Yield Curve
Full term structure 1M → 30Y · Live from US Treasury via FRED
Calculating…
| Maturity | Series | Yield | vs Prior | Bar |
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| Loading yield curve data… | ||||
Pillar 02
Inflation Indicators
CPI, PCE, PPI and market-implied inflation expectations
Core CPI (ex Food/Energy)
BLS ↗CPILFESL
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Fed's structural inflation gauge. Strips volatile energy & food components.
5-Year Breakeven Inflation
FRED ↗T5YIE
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Bond market's forward inflation expectation. Rising = market pricing in persistent inflation.
Inflation Composite Indicator
Weighted score across CPI, Core CPI, PCE, PPI and 5Y Breakeven
Composite Pressure Score
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CALCULATING…
Calculating from live data…
Low 0Neutral 50High 100
Component Readings
CPI Headline—
Core CPI—
PCE Index—
PPI All Commodities—
5Y Breakeven—
LOADING
Calculating inflation trend from live data…
Pillars 03 & 04
Growth & Labour Market
GDP, industrial output, retail sales, employment and recession models
Economic Growth
Real GDP
BEA ↗GDPC1
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Industrial Production
Fed ↗INDPRO
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Retail Sales
Census ↗RSAFS
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Recession Probability
FRED ↗RECPROUSM156N
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Fed model probability. Above 30% is historically significant.
Labour Market
Pillars 05 & 06
Commodities & US Dollar
Energy, precious metals, base metals and the trade-weighted dollar index
Energy & Metals
Commodity
Price
Change
Source
US Dollar Index
Trade-Weighted USD (Broad)
Fed ↗DTWEXBGS
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DXY ↑ → commodities typically ↓. Signals global USD demand and EM capital flows.
Major FX Pairs
Pillars 07 & 09
Credit, Liquidity & QE
Credit spreads, M2, financial stress index and the Fed balance sheet
Credit Spreads & Liquidity
Financial Stress Index
StL Fed ↗STLFSI4
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Below 0 = below-average stress. Spike above 0 = market stress signal.
Fed Balance Sheet & QE / QT Indicator
Total Fed Assets (WALCL)
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Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
Weekly Δ
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Mode
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13-Week Trajectory
Balance Sheet Components
Total Assets—
US Treasuries—
MBS Holdings—
Reserve Balances—
Overnight Repo—
LOADING
Analysing balance sheet trajectory…
Balance sheet expansion = QE = liquidity injection = risk-on. Contraction = QT = tightening = risk-off pressure on equities & credit.
Pillar 08
Economic Calendar
High-impact recurring events and current macro regime gauges
Recurring High-Impact Events
FOMC
Federal Reserve Rate Decision
High ImpactNFP
Non-Farm Payrolls — 1st Friday/Month
High ImpactCPI
Consumer Price Index — BLS
High ImpactPCE
Personal Consumption Expenditures — BEA
High ImpactGDP
Advance GDP Estimate — BEA (Quarterly)
Medium ImpactISM
ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI
Medium ImpactEIA
Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report
Medium ImpactOPEC+
OPEC+ Output Decisions — Supply Watch
High ImpactJOLTS
Job Openings & Labour Turnover Survey
Medium ImpactPPI
Producer Price Index — BLS
Medium ImpactRegime Gauges
Inflation Risk—
Recession Risk—
Credit Stress—
Yield Curve—
Dollar Strength—
Geopolitical RiskHIGH
Data Integrity
Verified Primary Sources
Every data point in this dashboard flows from official government and institutional primary sources
FRED — St. Louis Fed
800,000+ economic series. All dashboard data flows through FRED from official government sources.
Federal Reserve ✓ · Used by IMF, BIS, ECB
BLS — Bureau of Labour Statistics
Primary source for CPI, NFP, unemployment, PPI and jobless claims. Official US government agency.
US Federal Government ✓
BEA — Bureau of Economic Analysis
Official source for GDP, PCE and national income accounts. Feeds into FRED automatically on release.
US Federal Government ✓
EIA — Energy Information Admin
Official US energy data. Crude oil prices and weekly inventory reports. Most authoritative globally.
US Dept of Energy ✓
US Treasury
Official yield curves and constant maturity rates. Primary source for all Treasury yield data.
US Treasury Dept ✓
IMF — Int'l Monetary Fund
Global commodity prices and GDP forecasts. Copper via IMF Primary Commodity Prices database.
International ✓ · 190 member countries
LBMA — London Bullion Market
Global benchmark for gold and silver. The AM/PM fix is the world standard used by central banks.
Global Gold Benchmark ✓
Federal Reserve — H.15
Selected interest rates including Fed Funds, prime rate and Treasury securities.
Federal Reserve Board ✓