Market Overview
Macro Regime Gauges
Live Regime Indicators
Inflation Risk—
Recession Risk—
Credit Stress—
Yield Curve—
Dollar Strength—
Geopolitical RiskHIGH
Key Rates Snapshot
Fed Funds
—
10Y Treasury
—
10Y–2Y Spread
—
CPI Index
—
Commodity Snapshot
Interest Rates & Fed Policy
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED ↗FEDFUNDS
—
2-Yr Treasury
DGS2
FRED ↗DGS2
—
10-Yr Treasury
DGS10
FRED ↗DGS10
—
30-Yr Treasury
DGS30
FRED ↗DGS30
—
30-Yr Mortgage
MORTGAGE30US
FRED ↗MORTGAGE30US
—
US Treasury Yield Curve
Real-time term structure · Maturity vs Yield · Source: US Treasury / FRED
Calculating…
| Maturity | Series ID | Yield | Change | Visual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading yield curve data… | ||||
Inflation
Core CPI (ex Food/Energy)
CPILFESL
BLS/FRED ↗CPILFESL
—
Strips volatile energy & food. Fed watches this closely for structural inflation.
PPI All Commodities
PPIACO
BLS/FRED ↗PPIACO
—
Producer prices — leads CPI by 2–3 months. Early warning signal.
5-Year Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED ↗T5YIE
—
Bond market's forward inflation expectation. Rising = market pricing in persistent inflation.
Inflation Composite Indicator
View CPI on FRED ↗
Composite Pressure Score
—
CALCULATING…
Weighted composite of CPI, Core CPI, PCE, PPI & Breakeven
Low 0Neutral 50High 100
Component Readings
CPI Headline—
Core CPI—
PCE Index—
PPI All Commodities—
5Y Breakeven—
LOADING
Calculating inflation trend from live data…
GDP, Growth & Labour Market
Economic Growth
Real GDP
GDPC1
BEA/FRED ↗GDPC1
—
Industrial Production
INDPRO
Fed/FRED ↗INDPRO
—
Retail Sales
RSAFS
Census/FRED ↗RSAFS
—
Recession Probability
RECPROUSM156N
FRED ↗RECPROUSM156N
—
Fed model probability. Above 30% is historically significant.
Labour Market
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
BLS/FRED ↗UNRATE
—
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
DOL/FRED ↗ICSA
—
Most current labour market signal. Rising trend = weakening economy.
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
BLS/FRED ↗PAYEMS
—
Labour Force Participation
CIVPART
BLS/FRED ↗CIVPART
—
Energy, Commodities & US Dollar
Energy & Metals
—
Commodity
Price
Change
Source
US Dollar Index
Trade-Weighted USD (Broad)
DTWEXBGS
Fed/FRED ↗DTWEXBGS
—
DXY ↑ → commodities typically ↓. Signals global USD demand and EM capital flows.
Credit Markets, Liquidity & QE
Credit Spreads & Liquidity
Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
StL Fed ↗STLFSI4
—
Below 0 = below-avg stress. Spike above 0 = market stress signal.
Fed Balance Sheet & QE / QT Indicator
Total Fed Assets (WALCL)
—
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
Weekly Δ
—
Mode
—
13-Week Trajectory
Balance Sheet Components
Total Assets (WALCL)—
US Treasury Holdings—
MBS Holdings—
Reserve Balances—
Overnight Reverse Repo—
LOADING
Analysing balance sheet trajectory…
Balance sheet expansion = QE = liquidity injection = risk-on. Contraction = QT = tightening = risk-off pressure on equities & credit.
Economic Calendar & Macro Events
Recurring High-Impact Events
FOMC
Federal Reserve Rate Decision
High ImpactNFP
Non-Farm Payrolls — 1st Friday/Month
High ImpactCPI
Consumer Price Index — BLS
High ImpactPCE
Personal Consumption Expenditures — BEA
High ImpactGDP
Advance GDP Estimate — BEA (Quarterly)
Medium ImpactISM
ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI
Medium ImpactEIA
Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report
Medium ImpactOPEC+
OPEC+ Output Decisions — Supply Watch
High ImpactJOLTS
Job Openings & Labour Turnover Survey
Medium ImpactPPI
Producer Price Index — BLS
Medium ImpactCurrent Regime Gauges
Inflation Risk—
Recession Risk—
Credit Stress—
Yield Curve—
Dollar Strength—
Geopolitical RiskHIGH
Gauges driven by live FRED data. Geopolitical gauge reflects current Iran/ME conflict status.
Verified Primary Sources
FRED — St. Louis Fed
800,000+ economic series. Every metric in this dashboard flows through FRED from official government sources.
Federal Reserve ✓ · Used by IMF, BIS, ECB
BLS — Bureau of Labour Statistics
Primary source for CPI, NFP, unemployment, PPI, and jobless claims. Official US government statistical agency.
US Federal Government ✓
BEA — Bureau of Economic Analysis
Official source for GDP, PCE and national income accounts. Feeds into FRED automatically on release.
US Federal Government ✓
EIA — Energy Information Admin
Official US government energy data. Crude oil prices and weekly inventory reports.
US Dept of Energy ✓
US Treasury
Official yield curves and constant maturity rates. Primary source for all Treasury yield data.
US Treasury Dept ✓
IMF — Int'l Monetary Fund
Global commodity prices and GDP forecasts. Copper via IMF Primary Commodity Prices database.
International ✓ · 190 member countries
LBMA — London Bullion Market
Global benchmark for gold and silver. The AM/PM fix is the world standard used by central banks.
Global Gold Benchmark ✓
Federal Reserve — H.15
Selected interest rates including Fed Funds, prime rate, and Treasury securities.
Federal Reserve Board ✓